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The Most Recent Party Realignment: Identifying the Realigning Election

The concept of "party realignment" in American politics refers to a dramatic shift in the political landscape, where the dominant political parties' coalitions of voters change significantly. These shifts aren't gradual; they're characterized by periods of intense partisan conflict, culminating in a "realigning election"—a pivotal election that marks a clear break from the previous political order. Identifying the most recent realignment, however, is a subject of ongoing debate among political scientists. While some argue that a clear realignment hasn't occurred in recent decades, others point to specific elections as potential turning points. This article will delve into the arguments surrounding potential realigning elections, examining the evidence and ultimately offering a considered conclusion.

The Case for 1932: The FDR Revolution

The most commonly cited example of a realigning election is 1932, which saw Franklin D. Roosevelt's landslide victory. This election marked the beginning of the New Deal coalition, which fundamentally reshaped the Democratic Party.

Key Features of the 1932 Realignment:

The Rise of the New Deal Coalition: FDR's victory brought together a diverse coalition of voters, including urban workers, African Americans (though this was still nascent and complex), Southern farmers, and intellectuals. This coalition was built on the promise of economic relief and government intervention in the face of the Great Depression.
Shifting Party Loyalties: The Republican Party, associated with laissez-faire economics, lost significant support, while the Democratic Party gained substantial ground. This shift was particularly pronounced among traditionally Republican voters who felt abandoned by the party's response to the economic crisis.
Enduring Impact: The New Deal coalition dominated American politics for decades, shaping policy and party platforms. This dominance only truly began to fracture in the late 1960s and 1970s.

The Contested 1968 Election and the End of the New Deal Coalition

The election of 1968, which saw Richard Nixon's victory over Hubert Humphrey, is often presented as a significant turning point, marking the end of the New Deal coalition rather than initiating a new alignment.

Arguments for 1968 as a Realigning Election (or the beginning of one):

The Southern Strategy: Nixon's "Southern Strategy," aimed at attracting white Southern voters away from the Democratic Party, successfully exploited racial divisions and eroded the Democratic Party's dominance in the South.
Rise of the New Right: The 1960s witnessed the rise of a conservative movement that challenged the liberal consensus that had prevailed since the New Deal. This movement found a champion in Nixon, further weakening the New Deal coalition.
Shifting Demographics: The changing demographics of the American electorate, including the growth of suburban populations and the increasing political activism of minority groups, further contributed to the fracturing of the existing party system.

Arguments Against 1968 as a Realigning Election:

Lack of a Clear New Coalition: While the 1968 election marked a significant shift, it didn't immediately produce a stable, long-term coalition. The Nixon coalition was itself fractured and ultimately proved unsustainable in the long run.
Continued Party Competition: Despite the shifts in voter allegiances, the two major parties continued to compete effectively for power throughout the following decades. A true realignment often involves a more drastic and enduring shift in party dominance.

The 1980 Election: Reagan's Conservative Revolution

The election of 1980, which saw Ronald Reagan's victory over Jimmy Carter, is another strong contender for a realigning election.

Arguments for 1980 as a Realigning Election:

Reagan Coalition: Reagan's victory built a new conservative coalition encompassing religious conservatives, business interests, and working-class whites who felt neglected by the Democratic Party.
Shift in Political Discourse: Reagan's presidency shifted the political discourse significantly to the right, emphasizing lower taxes, reduced government regulation, and a strong national defense. This shift had a lasting impact on American politics.
Long-term Impact on Party Platforms: The Republican Party under Reagan adopted a decisively conservative platform, which continues to influence the party today. The Democratic Party also responded to Reagan's success, though its response has been inconsistent and fragmented.

Arguments Against 1980 as a Realigning Election:

Contested Legacy: While Reagan's impact on American politics is undeniable, the long-term stability of the Reagan coalition is debatable. The Republican Party experienced internal divisions, and the conservative coalition fragmented at times.
No Total Dominance: The Democrats maintained significant electoral success even after Reagan's victories, including two terms by Bill Clinton. A true realigning election often results in a period of extended dominance by one party.

The 2016 Election and the Trump Phenomenon

The 2016 election, which saw Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton, is the most recent election that some argue represents a possible realignment.

Arguments for 2016 as a Realigning Election (or the beginning of one):

Rise of Populism: Trump's victory reflected a rise in populist sentiment, challenging the established political order and appealing to voters who felt ignored by the mainstream parties.
Shifting Demographics: Trump's success among white working-class voters in traditionally Democratic areas further highlights a potential shift in the electorate.
Fractured Party System: The 2016 election exposed deep fissures within both the Republican and Democratic parties, suggesting a possible restructuring of the American political system.

Arguments Against 2016 as a Realigning Election:

Lack of Cohesive Coalition: Trump's coalition was diverse and, to many, seemingly incoherent. It didn't represent a unified ideological shift like the New Deal coalition.
Continuing Two-Party System: Despite Trump's victory, the two-party system remains largely intact. No new major party has emerged, and the Republican and Democratic parties still dominate the political landscape.
Short-Term Impact: While Trump's presidency had significant policy consequences, it is still too early to assess whether it marks a long-term realignment. The 2020 and 2024 elections will be crucial in determining the lasting impact of Trump's influence.

Conclusion: The Elusive Realigning Election

Identifying the most recent realigning election is challenging. While 1932 undeniably marked a significant shift, subsequent elections—especially 1968, 1980, and 2016—introduced further complexities. None of these elections resulted in a completely new and enduring party system. Each introduced shifts, fractures, and realignments within existing party structures, influencing future electoral dynamics.

The continuous evolution of the electorate, influenced by demographic shifts, technological advancements, and changing social issues, makes it difficult to pinpoint a single realigning election. Instead, the process of political realignment appears to be a more gradual and iterative process, with various elections contributing to long-term changes in party coalitions and political dynamics. The evidence suggests that the American political system is constantly in flux, making the identification of a definitive “most recent” realignment an ongoing debate among political scientists. Future elections will undoubtedly further shape the political landscape, potentially clarifying the significance of these past turning points and perhaps even revealing a new era of realignment. The impact of increasing political polarization, the rise of social media, and the evolving nature of political identity in the 21st century will further complicate efforts to define a single, decisive realigning event.